{"id":800,"date":"2020-05-19T11:03:31","date_gmt":"2020-05-19T05:33:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.potentialloops.org\/?p=800"},"modified":"2020-05-19T11:03:32","modified_gmt":"2020-05-19T05:33:32","slug":"quantifying-the-impact-of-interventions-in-covid-19-pandemic","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.potentialloops.org\/?p=800","title":{"rendered":"Quantifying the impact of interventions in COVID-19 pandemic"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Date: May 15, 2020 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Source 1: Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Source 2: www.sciencedaily.com<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Summary: Since the beginning of March, public life in Germany has been severely restricted due to the coronavirus pandemic. Following the encouraging decline in the number of new cases of COVID-19, the debate on the effectiveness of interventions taken to date and on further relaxation of the restrictions is meanwhile gaining momentum. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since the beginning of March, public life in \nGermany has been severely restricted due to the coronavirus pandemic. \nFollowing the encouraging decline in the number of new cases of \nCOVID-19, the debate on the effectiveness of interventions taken to date\n and on further relaxation of the restrictions is meanwhile gaining \nmomentum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Researchers from the Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and \nSelf-Organization (MPIDS) and the University of G\u00f6ttingen have now \nsucceeded in analyzing the German COVID-19 case numbers with respect to \npast containment measures and deriving scenarios for the coming weeks. \nTheir computer models could also provide insights into the effectiveness\n of interventions in other countries. Their results have been published \ntoday online in the journal Science<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simulations since mid-March<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Many people are currently concerned about how well the measures to \ncontain the pandemic have worked in recent weeks and how things will \ncontinue in the coming weeks. Scientists at the MPIDS have been \ninvestigating these questions. The team has been simulating the course \nof the coronavirus epidemic in Germany together with scientists from the\n G\u00f6ttingen Campus since mid-March. In their model calculations, the \nresearchers relate the gradually increasing restrictions of public life \nin March to the development of COVID-19 case numbers. In particular, \nthey examined the effect of the three packages of interventions in \nMarch: the cancellation of major public events around March 8, the \nclosure of educational institutions and many shops on March 16, and the \nextensive contact ban on March 22. To this end, the researchers combined\n data on the temporal course of the COVID-19 new infections with an \nepidemiological dynamics model that allows the analysis of the course of\n the pandemic to date and the investigation of scenarios for the future.\n According to the computer models, the packages of measures initially \nslowed down the spread of COVID-19 and finally broke the dreaded \nexponential growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Our analysis clearly shows the effect of the various interventions, \nwhich together ultimately brought about a strong trend reversal,” says \nViola Priesemann, research group leader at the Max Planck Institute. \nMichael Wilczek, research group leader and co-author of the study, adds:\n “Our model calculations thus show us the overall effect of the change \nin people’s behavior that goes hand in hand with the interventions.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A computer model also for other countries and regions<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In their work, the G\u00f6ttingen researchers did not only have Germany in\n mind. “From the very beginning, we designed our computer model so that \nit could be transferred to other countries and regions. Our analysis \ntools are freely available on GitHub (https:\/\/github.com\/Priesemann-Group\/covid19_inference_forecast<\/a>)\n and are already being used and developed further by researchers around \nthe world,” says Jonas Dehning, lead author of the study. The G\u00f6ttingen \nresearch team is currently working on applying the model to European \ncountries. It is particularly important to work out the different points\n in time at which the measures were taken in different countries, which \ncould allow to draw conclusions about the effectiveness of the \nindividual measures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Concerns about the second wave<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The G\u00f6ttingen researchers’ analysis of Germany on the basis of case \nnumbers up to April 21 indicated an overall positive development of case\n numbers for the coming weeks. However, their analysis also reveals a \ncentral challenge in assessing the epidemic dynamics: changes in the \nspread of the coronavirus are only reflected in the COVID-19 case \nnumbers with considerable delays. “We have only recently seen the first \neffects of the relaxation of restrictions of April 20 in the case \nnumbers. And until we can evaluate the relaxations of May 11, we also \nhave to wait two to three weeks,” says Michael Wilczek. The researchers \nare therefore continuing to monitor the situation very closely. Every \nday they evaluate the new case numbers to assess whether a second wave \nis to be expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Using three different model scenarios, the G\u00f6ttingen team also shows \nhow the number of new cases might develop further. If the relaxations of\n May 11 doubles the infection rate, a second wave can be expected. \nInstead, if the infection rate balances the recovery rate, the new \ninfections stay approximately constant. However, it is also possible \nthat the number of new infections will continue to decrease, says Viola \nPriesemann: “If everyone continues to be very careful and contact \ntracing by the health authorities is effective, and at the same time all\n new outbreaks of infection are detected and contained early, then the \nnumber of cases can continue to decrease. How exactly the numbers will \ndevelop in the future, therefore, depends decisively on our behavior, \nthe observance of distance recommendations and hygiene measures,” says \nthe G\u00f6ttingen physicist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Story Source:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Materials<\/a> provided by Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization<\/strong><\/a>. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

www.sciencedaily.com<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Journal Reference<\/strong>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

  1. Jonas Dehning, Johannes Zierenberg, F. Paul Spitzner, Michael Wibral, Joao Pinheiro Neto, Michael Wilczek, Viola Priesemann. Inferring change points in the spread of COVID-19 reveals the effectiveness of interventions<\/strong>. Science<\/em>, 2020; eabb9789 DOI: 10.1126\/science.abb9789<\/a><\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n
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